Trend Onset of labour supply constraints in Korea

Summary

KEIS reads its 2023 to 2033 projections as the start of an era in which labour supply, rather than demand, limits Korean employment. Low fertility and ageing slow population growth and shift the age structure so sharply that the economically active population reaches a peak and then declines. Even though participation rates rise within individual age groups, population decline outweighs these gains, so labour force growth fades and turns negative from 2028. The report expects younger cohorts to feel this contraction especially strongly. It frames the result as a structural shift in which population change and technological progress will have a stronger influence on the labour market over the next decade.