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Latest observation
2026-10-08
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4434
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2026-10-08 19:44 KST
The Futures

Issue Whether Washington can contain China when Soviet-style containment and full decoupling are impractical

Summary

The report asks how the United States could restrain China's rise and whether it would repeat the Cold War containment used against the Soviet Union through economic decoupling and hard diplomatic isolation. US power still dominates the world economy, but it is relatively weaker than in the early Cold War and globalization itself has slowed. Severing every supply and value chain linked to China is judged practically impossible, and many states seek growth and stability through ties with China and other authoritarian partners. The outcome is said to hinge on allies: if Washington persuades G7 and OECD partners to deepen decoupling, China's room shrinks sharply, but if they decline, China gains space to widen its influence. The authors add that Washington does not seek containment alone, since it also presses Beijing to contribute to nuclear arms control and global order.

Classification

Impactscope:country · geo_region:east_asia · geo_region:north_america · country:CN · country:US
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-09-30)
Published2025-12-30
Last updated2026-09-30 17:59 KST

Evidence 1

Constituent trends 3

Directly linked signals 0

No objects.

Relation types: constitutes

Public id: fm-87729f59db82