Trend Washington pursues a composite strategy of burden sharing and restored great-power politics
Summary
The report describes the second Trump administration as showing little interest in sustaining global leadership and as intent on scaling back the dollar's reserve role and America's role as world police. Paradoxically, it still aims to preserve US hegemony by running geopolitical and economic-technology competition on two fronts at once. To do so it combines geopolitics, economics, trade and even science and advanced technology into one composite strategy resembling a complex security concept. The authors see this rooted in elite anxiety that authoritarian states, China above all, could erode US primacy. Rather than Cold War-style blanket containment, Washington mixes blocking in frontier technology with partial cooperation and dialogue elsewhere, while seeking stability by restoring great-power bargaining that tacitly recognizes Russian and Chinese regional roles.
Classification
Evidence 1
- 대외경제정책연구원(KIEP) 글로벌 질서 변동과 새로운 북방전략 연구 대외경제정책연구원(KIEP) no link — bibliographic entry pp. 35, 36, 42, 45 2025-12-30 accessed 2026-09-30
Observed signals 5
- Signal13th Beijing Xiangshan Forum opens as China-US military dialogue continues to resume
- SignalApril 2025 US tariffs: universal launch, 90-day pause for partners and over 104 percent on China
- SignalRevised US guidance signals heavier regional burdens for Korea and Taiwan and a changing USFK role
- SignalTrump Welcomes Xi to Washington as US-China Trade Truce Extended
- SignalTrump presses allies on defense costs and NATO, courts Russia's G7 return and sidelines the WTO
Part of issues 3
- IssueA Yalta 2.0 bargain: US-Russia normalization and mutual recognition of spheres in Eurasia2 trends · 0 signals
- IssueExport-led US allies such as Korea, Japan and Germany lose strategic autonomy3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueWhether Washington can contain China when Soviet-style containment and full decoupling are impractical3 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-4a293ab558b2
