Issue Arctic routes opening while other trade routes become less viable

Summary

Over the longer term, the report suggests that global trade routes could shift. Rising seas and melting ice caps could open new shipping lanes through the Arctic. Some existing routes, on the other hand, could become less viable because of climate change, geopolitical tension and piracy. The report explains that climate change is already disrupting trade routes, as more severe weather lowers farm yields and damages infrastructure. It also flags that supply chains are concentrated at key logistics hubs such as the Suez and Panama canals, so a disruption in one place can spread across the network. As a link to acute risks, it observes that greater trade interconnection increases the impact of any disruption to global oil routes.