Issue 2050 regional order scenario 4: Interpenetrating competition amid economic interdependence

Summary

The fourth scenario combines continued economic interdependence among great powers with intensifying political and security conflict. Even as geopolitical competition grows, most countries still argue for a high level of economic interdependence, and both the Biden and Trump administrations have kept up ordinary trade with China while calling for strategic decoupling. Without an extreme all-out war, competition and confrontation would persist at many levels, and Korea and Japan would try to maximize national interests within a complex web of rivalry and cooperation. Security and economic interests would intersect intricately, since economic and technological disputes would continue even if a geopolitical balance keeps the status quo. The report sees shared interests for the two countries in resolving economic disputes, blocking attempts to change the status quo through economic coercion and restoring global multilateral economic institutions such as the WTO.