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2026-10-08
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The Futures

Issue Tariffs as the most negotiable issue in US-China bargaining

Summary

Among the economic disputes, tariffs cover the widest ground, and because careless tariff hikes can harm economic activity inside the US, they are the area where American concessions come most easily. The IEEPA tariffs applied to all Chinese goods under Trump's second term also left more room for adjustment than the selective Section 301 duties imposed earlier. China views US tariffs as a serious blow to market access and will actively use its leverage to get them withdrawn. Section 301 tariffs, which formally target unfair Chinese practices, are unlikely to be fully resolved soon because Washington judges the Phase One deal poorly implemented. If China keeps certain chemicals from flowing to the US and other countries as agreed, the fentanyl-related tariffs could be lowered further, and cross-issue bargaining is likely to continue.

Classification

Secondary topicsGeopolitics & Security
Impactscope:country · geo_region:east_asia · geo_region:north_america · country:CN · country:US
Time horizon0-3 years (2026-09-30)
Published2026-02
Last updated2026-09-30 17:59 KST

Evidence 1

Constituent trends 1

Directly linked signals 1

Relation types: constitutes · direct_urgent

Public id: fm-9ca8d12ce56c