Trend Wealth growth shifts from real investment to paper gains
Summary
MGI finds that wealth growth in 2025 relied even more than before on asset values rising faster than real investment and output, producing record levels of wealth on paper. Only 20 percent of household wealth growth came from net new investment, meaning machinery and equipment, homes and buildings, infrastructure, and intellectual property after depreciation, compared with an average of 30 percent over 2000 to 2024. Nearly 60 percent came from asset prices rising faster than general inflation together with negative net worth in other sectors. The report counts the latter as claims households hold that are not backed by assets, such as equity valued above corporate net assets or government bonds exceeding government assets. Paper gains had driven only about a third of global wealth growth on average between 2000 and 2024, so the 2025 figure marks a clear shift.
Classification
Evidence 2
- The global balance sheet 2026: Imbalance and divergence McKinsey Global Institute page=29;section=Has wealth growth been 'healthy?' 2026-07 accessed 2026-07-26
- The global balance sheet 2026: Imbalance and divergence McKinsey Global Institute page=5;section=Introduction 2026-07 accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 6
- SignalEquity produced 57% of new household wealth in 2025 against 15% from real estate
- SignalEquity was the largest source of wealth creation in nearly every major economy in 2025
- SignalHousehold wealth growth accelerated to 7.3% in 2025 from a 5.9% long-run average
- SignalJapan posted the largest wealth upswing, driven mostly by valuation gains after decades of near-zero inflation
- SignalOnly 20% of 2025 wealth growth was real capital formation; drivers split by country
- SignalUK and Canadian wealth growth slipped in local currency while Canadian equity lifted paper wealth
Part of issues 3
- IssueAn elevated balance sheet unwinds through productivity, inflation, a reset, or not at all3 trends · 1 signals
- IssuePaper wealth widens wealth inequality and raises the entry barrier to asset markets1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueProlonged valuation gaps distort capital allocation and feed inequality before correcting1 trends · 1 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-9ec1a9b67eea
