Signal All five non-capital metropolitan cities have passed their population peaks
Summary
Busan peaked first, at about 3.85 million in 1995, and is projected to shrink to about 2.69 million by 2045. Daegu topped out in 2004, Daejeon in 2014, Ulsan in 2016 and Gwangju in 2019, and each has been losing residents since. By 2045 the projections put Daegu at about 1.96 million, Daejeon at about 1.327 million, Gwangju at about 1.267 million and Ulsan at about 0.91 million. Until the early 2000s, when innovation cities were being planned, most of these cities except Busan were still growing. In the 2020s all of them entered decline, and the projected losses become larger over time.
Classification
Main topicDemographics & Migration
Secondary topicsCities & Housing
Occurrencescope:subnational · geo_region:east_asia · country:KR
Impactscope:subnational · geo_region:east_asia · country:KR
Time horizon11-30 years (2026-09-30)
Published2026-06
Last updated2026-09-30 17:59 KST
Evidence 1
- 국회미래연구원 인구변화에 대응하는 균형발전 정책 방향: 공공기관 지방이전과 인구이동 분석 국회미래연구원 no link — bibliographic entry p. 29 2026-06 accessed 2026-09-30
Part of trends 1
Directly linked issues 1
- IssueShifting balanced development from even dispersion to selective hub strengthening2 trends · 1 signals
Relation types: direct_urgent · supports
Public id: fm-a2536df6e54f
