Signal 2025 survey of 300 experts and 1,000 citizens ranks trends by impact and uncertainty

Summary

Between 26 September and 12 October 2025, KISTEP ran a web survey of 300 experts drawn from its foresight centre's policy clients and 1,000 members of the public. Respondents rated each of the 16 trends on impact, uncertainty and scientific and technological responsiveness on seven-point scales, and chose when its effects would peak. Experts gave priority to the shift to superintelligence, climate acceleration, the normalisation of risk and complex geopolitics, and saw the greatest uncertainty in global governance fracture and complex geopolitics. The public prioritised polarisation, declining institutional trust, the normalisation of risk, climate acceleration and ecological crisis, while rating changes in life and space and territorial restructuring low on both counts. Averaging the two groups produced six driver candidates: polarisation, the normalisation of risk, superintelligence, climate acceleration, ecological crisis and complex geopolitics.