Trend US and European influence in Eurasia recedes behind that of Russia and China

Summary

The report judges that US and European strategies toward the Eurasian space achieved little: efforts to integrate Russia into the West through the G8 and the NATO-Russia Council failed, and Western plans for regional bodies, logistics routes and infrastructure produced no visible results. The West kept a positive image as a soft-power and democratic leader, but it cannot replace Russia and China in hard power or as economic partners, and the pandemic reminded new Eurasian states that Moscow and Beijing were more useful in a crisis. The EU faces a strategic retreat because of stagnation and inflation, population decline, political fragmentation with a rising far right and weaker competitiveness in advanced technology and defense. Low Western economic engagement, an unclear US strategy, US handling of the Gaza crisis since 7 October 2023 and European weakness in Ukraine ceasefire talks have fed doubts that the West would ultimately yield to Russia on sovereignty and territory. The authors add that across administrations from Obama to Trump US goals in Eurasia have been consistent, yet Washington lacks the will and capacity to play a dominant role there.