Trend Climate driver: three variant paths from halted warming to failed survival

Summary

For the climate crisis driver, KISTEP first split futures by whether the temperature rise is halted, then divided the failure case by whether humanity's survival strategy succeeds, giving three variants. In the halted-warming path, technology bottlenecks and disagreement among countries let warming reach about 1.5 degrees in the 2030s, but later breakthroughs dramatically stop the rise by 2050 and society enters a stable adaptation regime. In the adaptation path, attempts to stop climate change fail, yet successful technological alternatives and new rules shared by all humanity secure sustainability on a changed planet. In the failed survival strategy path, technologies and policies for survival succeed only partly, the world population falls sharply and political and social structures become subordinate to the groups that survive. These variants were combined with those of the other two drivers to build the scenarios.