Issue A Yalta 2.0 bargain: US-Russia normalization and mutual recognition of spheres in Eurasia

Summary

Some observers read the second Trump administration's mix of geopolitics, tariffs, technology denial and supply-chain cutoffs as an attempt to recreate Cold War-style great-power politics in which major powers decide the course of world order. The report observes that Trump's conduct in ceasefire talks on the Ukraine and Gaza wars, including efforts to reach a settlement with Russia while leaving Europe and Ukraine out, lends this view growing credibility. US strategy toward Eurasia is inferred to aim at splitting or at least preventing closer China-Russia alignment through normalization with Moscow, a move labelled a reverse Kissinger strategy. It would rest on a broad US-Russia understanding with mutual recognition of spheres of influence and symptomatic handling of individual Eurasian issues. If such normalization proves durable the world order could change profoundly, weakening NATO and reshaping Eurasian geopolitics, whereas an opportunistic or short-lived policy would have far smaller effects.