Trend Populist nationalism and strongman leadership erode the post-Cold War structure

Summary

The report dates direct challenges to the post-Cold War liberal order to around 2010, when the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis gave rise to open resistance to globalization. It treats the arrival of populist nationalist leaders as the central driver, rather than US pressure alone. Putin's return in 2012 with the goal of a strong Russia, Xi Jinping's rise in 2013 with an emphasis on Chinese civilization, and Trump's election in 2016 under the Make America Great Again slogan are presented as a sequence. Hopes for a liberal revival under Biden faded after the pandemic cut global links and Trump returned to power in 2025. The leaders of the three most influential powers glorify national history, stress exceptionalism and downplay rule-based systems and alliances, and the report concludes that the post-1989 structure is effectively unravelling.