Issue Export-led US allies such as Korea, Japan and Germany lose strategic autonomy

Summary

The report sees the shift in US national strategy as a source of crisis within the Western alliance itself. Korea, Japan and Germany, all US allies and open, export-driven trading states, prospered by riding the post-Cold War order and are now the ones under the most strain. These countries relied fully on US leadership in security while using rules-based order to expand their economic, industrial and cultural reach, which left some room for strategic autonomy. The authors judge that the second Trump administration is folding even the economic sphere into military-security thinking, shrinking that room as far as possible. They add that if the rationale for US alliance networks in Europe and Asia weakens further, allied demands for strategic autonomy will inevitably grow.