Trend Smart downshifting: consumers trade down and trade up within the same basket
Summary
Capgemini's second chapter thesis: rather than cutting across the board, consumers now mix high and low choices by category, trading down where reliability is not at stake and holding spend where it is, especially on health.
Classification
Main topicValues & Lifestyles
Secondary topicsMacroeconomy & Finance
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon0-3 years (2026-07-26)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 2
- What matters to today's consumer 2026: How AI is transforming value perception Capgemini Research Institute page=21;section=Careful spending meets intentional indulgence / Strategic saving 2026 accessed 2026-07-26
- What matters to today's consumer 2026: How AI is transforming value perception Capgemini Research Institute page=21;section=Careful spending meets intentional indulgence / Strategic saving 2026 accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 7
- Signal49% buy smaller quantities and 48% substitute cheaper alternatives
- SignalA cited 30% premium for healthier food sits against the report's own 3-12% premiums
- SignalKroger reports low- and middle-income households cutting trip size and dining out
- SignalMoney-off (75%) leads a promotion hierarchy that rewards immediacy
- SignalReported impulse restraint fell from 71% to 54% in a single year
- SignalSephora paid for rides to stores after a Q1 2025 US sales dip
- SignalTwo in three trust ecommerce on price, ahead of physical stores at 53%
Part of issues 3
- IssueAn empowered consumer makes value a moving target for brands3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueCognitive friction, not discount depth, decides which promotions work1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePrivate label hits a trust ceiling in performance-critical categories1 trends · 2 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-ea077c86ea35