Trend Smart downshifting: consumers trade down and trade up within the same basket
Summary
Capgemini's second chapter describes an era of smart downshifting, in which consumers mix cheaper and pricier choices across categories. Rather than cutting back evenly, many shoppers trade down in some areas while protecting spending in others. Health-related purchases are a typical area where people keep paying more. Around two in five are opting for cheaper alternatives, private labels, or smaller quantities to manage budgets. Yet these economies stop when reliability is at stake, so the basket combines saving with deliberate splurging.
Classification
Main topicValues & Lifestyles
Secondary topicsMacroeconomy & Finance
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon0-3 years (2026-07-26)
Published2026
Last updated2026-09-30 12:56 KST
Evidence 2
- What matters to today's consumer 2026: How AI is transforming value perception Capgemini Research Institute page=21;section=Careful spending meets intentional indulgence / Strategic saving 2026 accessed 2026-07-26
- What matters to today's consumer 2026: How AI is transforming value perception Capgemini Research Institute page=21;section=Careful spending meets intentional indulgence / Strategic saving 2026 accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 7
- Signal49% buy smaller quantities and 48% substitute cheaper alternatives
- SignalA cited 30% premium for healthier food sits against the report's own 3-12% premiums
- SignalKroger reports low- and middle-income households cutting trip size and dining out
- SignalMoney-off (75%) leads a promotion hierarchy that rewards immediacy
- SignalReported impulse restraint fell from 71% to 54% in a single year
- SignalSephora paid for rides to stores after a Q1 2025 US sales dip
- SignalTwo in three trust ecommerce on price, ahead of physical stores at 53%
Part of issues 3
- IssueAn empowered consumer makes value a moving target for brands3 trends · 0 signals
- IssueCognitive friction, not discount depth, decides which promotions work1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePrivate label hits a trust ceiling in performance-critical categories1 trends · 2 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-ea077c86ea35
